DAY 175: "Forecast Warning, part 2"

     Epidemiologists foresee the next viral surge to arrive in America will be here in a month, and that it will clearly be the Delta variant. New cases have already gone from 10% to 30% in 2 weeks' time.

Infection with Delta results in 2½-to-4 times the hospitalization risk…that is, up to 400% more damaging. 

     Transmission can occur in a fleeting 5-to-10-second contact with an infected person, long enough for a fast-food drive-through.

     For those yet to be vaccinated, there's been talk of switching your plans to receiving the double-dose Pfizer or Moderna inoculations, as is now recommended in Canada for its citizenry.

     Statistics for the UK's lesser Alpha strain have shown that 1 out of every 100 children are hospitalized for COVID-19. But with Delta, it's not hard to guess that those stats will be higher.

     Here in America, it's predominantly the red counties (where anti-vaccine propaganda has been most effective) that may become our undoing. Steve Edwards, CEO of Cox Health hospitals in Missouri, has pleaded with Fox News to alert their viewers to the present danger, but to no avail. We should know by now what to expect: casualties and further mutations.

     And to top it off, there's already a brand new strain: Delta Plus, otherwise known as AY.1, which is, in a word, worse.

     Data from Eric Feigl-Ding, Federation Of American Scientists.

DAY 174: "Forecast Warning"

     According to Fauci, the Delta variant will likely become the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. in a matter of weeks.

     Delta, the primary mutation discovered in India, even now makes up 20% of all new cases in the U.S.

     If I understand correctly, it is 60% more transmissible than Alpha (UK), which is more transmissible than Wuhan-1. Reinfection, for those who've recovered from COVID-19, is actually possible.

     We don't (yet) know how effective our vaccinations will be against this strain. But researchers agree that outdoor transmission is rare...for what it's worth.

     Data from Seth Mnookin of M.I.T..

DAY 167: "Terminology"

Breakthrough-Covid: Coronavirus infection & symptoms that affect folks already vaccinated.

Covid Long-Haulers: Those affected by Long Covid. Patients tend to be younger and have in some cases suffered just mild initial conditions. (Harvard Medical School)

Gain Of Function: Aim of research techniques designed (in the case of viruses) to: a) manipulate contagiousness, lethality, or other viral functions; b) done in order to assess potential threats arising later in the natural environment; c) seen by paranoids as an excuse to fund more churches and less scientific research.

Long Covid: Variation of COVID-19 that includes symptoms lasting at least four weeks longer than the typical course of the disease.

DAY 158: "Variants & Mutations"

          origin                    name              note

• Australia/Europe  "Doug"             more infectious / less ill
• Brazil                    GAMMA          P.1: medium vax effectivity
• China                    Wuhan-1
• Columbus, Ohio   "Nelly"             or Kent, Great Britain?
• Denmark              Cluster 5         mink-to-human transmission
• India #1                DELTA            may "easily avoid antibodies"
• India #2                KAPPA
• India #3                N440K
• India #4                L452R
• India #5                E484Q             "double mutant"
• Italy                      B.1
• Lithuania
• Malaysia               A701V
• New York City      IOTA
• Nigeria                 ETA
• Philippines           THETA
• Rio de Janeiro      ZETA                low concern
• South Africa         BETA                low vax effectivity
• UK #1                   ALPHA
• UK #2/Oregon     "Eeek"               low vax effectivity
• UK #3                                            Feb 2021, 16 cases
• UK #4                  B.1.617.2
• UK #5                  B.1.617.3
• USA                     EPSILON          medium vax effectivity
• Vietnam
• West Bengal                                  135 sequences detected in India
•                              S477G/N

DAY 150: "Reaction Report, part 7"

     Brandon got his 2nd Moderna shot on Friday. The entire VIP Area of the football stadium downtown has been converted into a busy vaccination center (where he had received his 1st shot).

     The place was highly organized, nearly all the personal details had been worked out online ahead of time. Appointments from Enter to Exit took no more than 30 to 45 minutes tops.

     Sometimes the 40-minute ride on the E-Line bus to downtown Seattle is quite full, other times not at all. Along the way, Brandon sees more & more people about without their masks.

     6 hours after the deed was done, his arm & neck became sore. By the middle of the night he started having migraines, night chills, and cold sweats. He couldn't sleep and had little appetite.

     These side effects were more aggressive than the casual flu. The malady lasted well into the next day and subsided on Sunday, when we spoke about new viral mutations and the need for further inoculations in the future.

DAY 148: "Reaction Report, part 6"

Reprinted with kind permission from anonymous:

"I got vaxxed at North Seattle Community College."

"Signing up for it at first appeared impossible, as they wouldn't accept my electronic signature. It turned out I could do it easily from my computer at work however. Newer model."

"I complained about this. I got two replies: one form-letter from a robot,basically telling me where to go, and one from a human, thanking me for bringing the problem to their attention and promising to fix it."

"Finding the place was something of a challenge; it was hidden behind the college. But if you wander around long enough, you'll stumble across it."

"Once I got there, everything was cool. They went ahead and vaxxed me, even though I was an hour early both days. Friendly, well-run establishment."

DAY 135: "Reaction Report, part 5"

     Joel gets his 2nd Moderna shot. The next day he complains of flu-like symptoms, including chills. "And Everything hurt." 

     The symptoms were worse than his usual migraine & nausea. They last for twelve hours, through which he mostly sleeps. A couple of us take turns letting Anja out to get some sun and relieve herself.

     Afterward, a backyard conversation turns to various ailments, medicines, and colorful descriptions of dry-heaving, as in who had the worst, etc..

     A warning goes out to Brandon. He's due for his 2nd Moderna in about 10 days. Be prepared!