Thursday, June 24, 2021

DAY 175: "Forecast Warning, part 2"

     Epidemiologists foresee the next viral surge to arrive in America will be here in a month, and that it will clearly be the Delta variant. New cases have already gone from 10% to 30% in 2 weeks' time.

Infection with Delta results in 2½-to-4 times the hospitalization risk…that is, up to 400% more damaging. 

     Transmission can occur in a fleeting 5-to-10-second contact with an infected person, long enough for a fast-food drive-through.

     For those yet to be vaccinated, there's been talk of switching your plans to receiving the double-dose Pfizer or Moderna inoculations, as is now recommended in Canada for its citizenry.

     Statistics for the UK's lesser Alpha strain have shown that 1 out of every 100 children are hospitalized for COVID-19. But with Delta, it's not hard to guess that those stats will be higher.

     Here in America, it's predominantly the red counties (where anti-vaccine propaganda has been most effective) that may become our undoing. Steve Edwards, CEO of Cox Health hospitals in Missouri, has pleaded with Fox News to alert their viewers to the present danger, but to no avail. We should know by now what to expect: casualties and further mutations.

     And to top it off, there's already a brand new strain: Delta Plus, otherwise known as AY.1, which is, in a word, worse.

     Data from Eric Feigl-Ding, Federation Of American Scientists.

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

DAY 174: "Forecast Warning"

     According to Fauci, the Delta variant will likely become the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. in a matter of weeks.

     Delta, the primary mutation discovered in India, even now makes up 20% of all new cases in the U.S.

     If I understand correctly, it is 60% more transmissible than Alpha (UK), which is more transmissible than Wuhan-1. Reinfection, for those who've recovered from COVID-19, is actually possible.

     We don't (yet) know how effective our vaccinations will be against this strain. But researchers agree that outdoor transmission is rare...for what it's worth.

     Data from Seth Mnookin of M.I.T..

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

DAY 167: "Terminology"

Breakthrough-Covid: Coronavirus infection & symptoms that affect folks already vaccinated.

Covid Long-Haulers: Those affected by Long Covid. Patients tend to be younger and have in some cases suffered just mild initial conditions. (Harvard Medical School)

Gain Of Function: Aim of research techniques designed (in the case of viruses) to: a) manipulate contagiousness, lethality, or other viral functions; b) done in order to assess potential threats arising later in the natural environment; c) seen by paranoids as an excuse to fund more churches and less scientific research.

Long Covid: Variation of COVID-19 that includes symptoms lasting at least four weeks longer than the typical course of the disease.

Monday, June 7, 2021

DAY 158: "Variants & Mutations"

          origin                    name              note

  • Australia/Europe  "Doug"             more infectious / less ill
  • Brazil                    GAMMA          P.1: medium vax effectivity
  • China                    Wuhan-1
  • Columbus, Ohio   "Nelly"             or Kent, Great Britain?
  • Denmark              Cluster 5         mink-to-human transmission
  • India #1                DELTA            may "easily avoid antibodies"
  • India #2                KAPPA
  • India #3                N440K
  • India #4                L452R
  • India #5                E484Q             "double mutant"
  • Italy                      B.1
  • Lithuania
  • Malaysia               A701V
  • New York City      IOTA
  • Nigeria                 ETA
  • Philippines           THETA
  • Rio de Janeiro      ZETA                low concern
  • South Africa         BETA                low vax effectivity
  • UK #1                   ALPHA
  • UK #2/Oregon     "Eeek"               low vax effectivity
  • UK #3                                            Feb 2021, 16 cases
  • UK #4                  B.1.617.2
  • UK #5                  B.1.617.3
  • USA                     EPSILON          medium vax effectivity
  • Vietnam
  • West Bengal                                  135 sequences detected in India
  •                              S477G/N

A Trip To The Food Bank

      After what seems like a couple years now I've decided to revisit our local food bank. DSHS apparently believes that there's be...